Streetlights and shadows

Rubriek: Textual/Printed/Reference Materials - Boek

Prijs: € 19.62

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Op voorraad. Voor 23:59 uur besteld, woensdag in huis

An expert explains how the conventional wisdom about decision making can get us into trouble-and why experience can't be replaced by rules, procedures, or analytical methods. In making decisions, when should we go with our gut and when should we try to analyze every option? When should we use our intuition and when should we rely on logic and statistics? Most of us would probably agree that for important decisions, we should follow certain guidelines-gather as much information as possible, compare the options, pin down the goals before getting started. But in practice we make some of our best decisions by adapting to circumstances rather than blindly following procedures. In Streetlights and Shadows, Gary Klein debunks the conventional wisdom about how to make decisions. He takes ten commonly accepted claims about decision making and shows that they are better suited for the laboratory than for life. The standard advice works well when everything is clear, but the tough decisions involve shadowy conditions of complexity and ambiguity. Gathering masses of information, for example, works if the information is accurate and complete-but that doesn't often happen in the real world. (Think about the careful risk calculations that led to the downfall of the Wall Street investment houses.) Klein offers more realistic ideas about how to make decisions in real-life settings. He provides many examples-ranging from airline pilots and weather forecasters to sports announcers and Captain Jack Aubrey in Patrick O'Brian's Master and Commander novels-to make his point. All these decision makers saw things that others didn't. They used their expertise to pick up cues and to discern patterns and trends. We can make better decisions, Klein tells us, if we are prepared for complexity and ambiguity and if we will stop expecting the data to tell us everything.

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Streetlights and Shadows

Rating: 0 / 5 | Prijs: € 17.99

An expert explains how the conventional wisdom about decision making can get us into trouble and why experience can t be replaced by rules procedures or analytical methods in making decisions when should we go with our gut and when should we try to analyze every option when should we use our Direct beschikbaar .. MEER INFO

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Insights can change the world but we also need insights into the everyday things that frustrate and confuse us so we can more effectively solve problems make decisions and get things done yet until now we knew remarkably little about insight how it works and how we can develop it for ourselve Op voorraad. Voor 23:59 uur besteld, woensdag in huis .. MEER INFO

Taal: en

Bindwijze: Paperback

Oorspronkelijke releasedatum: 30 september 2011

Aantal pagina's: 337

Illustraties: Nee

Hoofdauteur: Gary A. Klein

Tweede Auteur: Gary Klein

Hoofduitgeverij: Mit Press

Extra groot lettertype: Nee

Product breedte: 141 mm

Product hoogte: 23 mm

Product lengte: 223 mm

Studieboek: Ja

Verpakking breedte: 151 mm

Verpakking hoogte: 27 mm

Verpakking lengte: 231 mm

Verpakkingsgewicht: 477 g

EAN: 9780262516723

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